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Second Exit Poll Triumph for GfK Partnership in Ukraine

 

With all of the votes counted in the second round of voting for the Ukrainian Presidential election it is clear that the exit poll conducted by GfK NOP and GfK Ukraine has been an even greater success than the exit poll for the first round.

Second Round

 

	GfK Exit Poll	Actual Result
Viktor Yanukovych	49.3	48.95
Yulia Tymoshenko	45.3	45.47
None of the above*	5.4	5.57

*The official results sum to 98.8% with the remainder being spoiled ballots. To allow a proper comparison with the exit poll, which has no spoiled ballots, these have been added to the “None of the above” vote.

This means that the GfK exit poll had an error of a mere 0.5% on the gap between the two candidates, and the average error in the poll on all three possible options was a tiny 0.2% - a quite remarkable success story.

This follows on from the success of the GfK exit poll in the first round.

First Round

	GfK exit poll	Actual Result
Viktor Yanukovych	34.5	35.32
Yulia Tymoshenko	25.6	25.05
Sergiy Tigipko	13.8	13.05
Arseniy Yatsenyuk	7.01	6.96
Victor Yushenko	5.65	5.45

Nick Moon, Managing Director of GfK NOP Social Research comments: "To be within 1% for all the main candidates was a remarkable achievement for a company conducting its first ever Ukrainian exit poll.”

GfK NOP in the UK was commissioned by the television organisation ICTV to conduct the poll, because of its lengthy and very successful history of exit polling in the UK, and GfK NOP worked very closely with GfK Ukraine to conduct the poll, with expert advice also from Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde, who has worked on exit polls around the world, including all the recent UK general elections.

Moon continues: "The survey design was a joint effort between all three parties, with all the data collection and data processing being carried out by GfK Ukraine, who conducted over 25,000 interviews in the first round.This was a massive task to undertake in a single day in a country as large as the Ukraine, in the grip of winter, and is a tribute to the fieldwork organisation and interviewers of GfK Ukraine.”

Footnote

In the last UK general election GfK NOP worked with Ipsos MORI to conduct the exit poll for the BBC and ITN, and the Labour majority forecast by the exit poll was exactly right.

More information

Nick Moon
Managing Director, GfK NOP Social Research
nick.moon@gfk.com